We can't find the internet
Attempting to reconnect
Something went wrong!
Hang in there while we get back on track
Papers
20 resultsShowing papers similar to Reduction scenarios of plastic waste emission guided by the probability distribution model to avoid additional ocean plastic pollution by 2050s
ClearEvaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution
Researchers modeled five different intervention scenarios for reducing global plastic pollution between 2016 and 2040 and found that even implementing all feasible solutions would only cut pollution rates by 40% compared to 2016 levels. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 710 million metric tons of plastic waste would still accumulate in ecosystems even with immediate action. The study makes clear that coordinated global efforts across consumption reduction, recycling, waste collection, and innovation are urgently needed.
Plastic waste discharge to the global ocean constrained by seawater observations
Researchers used ocean plastic concentration data combined with multiple ocean circulation models to estimate that approximately 0.7 million metric tons of plastic enter the ocean each year, though uncertainty spans nearly 1.5 orders of magnitude. The study emphasizes that improving emission inventories and ocean monitoring data are the highest priorities for reducing uncertainty in global plastic pollution estimates.
Forecasting global plastic production and microplastic emission using advanced optimised discrete grey model
Researchers used advanced mathematical models to forecast future global plastic production and microplastic emissions. Their projections suggest that both production and emissions will continue rising significantly in the coming decades if current trends hold. The study provides policymakers with quantitative predictions that could help guide strategies for reducing plastic pollution.
The crucial role of circular waste management systems in cutting waste leakage into aquatic environments
Researchers combined spatial modeling with global population and development projections to show that 70% of future plastic waste leaking into waterways will come from China, South Asia, Africa, and India, and that even aggressive circular economy strategies cannot fully eliminate this leakage before 2030. The findings underscore that preventing plastic from entering the waste stream — not just cleaning it up — is the most effective intervention.
How much are we responsible for removing ocean plastic pollution ?
Researchers developed an integrated system dynamics and input-output model to simulate global marine plastic waste trends through 2050, quantifying the economic effort required from producers and consumers to achieve plastic removal targets across shoreline, coastal, and offshore ocean domains.
Prediction of What Would Occur if Plastic Pollution Continues and Strategies for Reducing It
This paper reviews current plastic pollution levels, predicts future outcomes if current trends continue, and evaluates strategies for reducing plastic waste. If production and disposal patterns don't change, plastics could outweigh fish in the ocean by 2050, making the human health implications of microplastics increasingly severe.
A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, degradation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system.
Researchers developed a global mass budget and box model tracking plastic cycling across terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric reservoirs from 1950 to 2015, incorporating historical production data, fragmentation, and transport dynamics for macroplastics, large microplastics, and small microplastics. The model estimated that the deep ocean (82 Tg) and shelf sediments (116 Tg) represent major plastic reservoirs, and that even maximum feasible reduction scenarios would result in approximately 4-fold increases in atmospheric and aquatic microplastic exposure by 2050 due to legacy plastics already in circulation.
Global environmental plastics dispersal under OECD policy scenarios towards 2060
Researchers modeled how global plastic pollution would spread through the environment under different policy scenarios developed by the OECD, looking ahead to 2060. They found that even with ambitious policy action, significant amounts of plastic will continue leaking into aquatic environments unless waste management improves dramatically worldwide. The study suggests that coordinated global policies targeting both plastic production and waste management are essential to curb environmental plastic pollution.
A threshold model of plastic waste fragmentation: New insights into the distribution of microplastics in the ocean and its evolution over time
Researchers developed a fragmentation model for plastic particles in the ocean that postulates a critical size threshold below which further fragmentation becomes extremely unlikely, producing a predicted abundance peak around 1 mm in agreement with field data. The model incorporates realistic environmental input rates and degradation kinetics to project the evolution of microplastic particle size distributions over time.
Microplastic forecast
This analysis estimates future microplastic pollution trajectories by applying various management strategies — including production caps and improved waste management — to baseline data, modeling the relationship between plastic waste mass and environmental microplastic abundance.
Scenarios for future microplastic pollution reduction: an integrated modeling approach for over 10,000 rivers
Researchers used the MARINA-Plastics model to simulate microplastic inputs from sewage and open defecation into over 10,000 rivers globally from 2010 to 2100 under multiple SDG-aligned scenarios, finding that combined improvements in sewage treatment and reduced per capita plastic consumption could substantially reduce river pollution, while Africa's contribution is projected to surpass Europe's in the future.
How much are we responsible for removing ocean plastic pollution ?
Researchers developed an integrated system dynamics and macroeconomic input-output model to simulate global marine plastic waste trends through 2050, tracking floating macroplastics and microplastics across shoreline, coastal, and offshore ocean domains. They used the model to assess the effort and economic costs required to achieve various plastic waste removal targets, analyzing how cost-sharing rules distribute impacts across producers and consumers.
Global discharge of microplastics from mechanical recycling of plastic waste
Researchers found that the mechanical recycling process for plastics actually generates significant amounts of new microplastics, with global emissions from recycling projected to grow from 0.017 million tonnes in 2000 to 0.749 million tonnes by 2060. While recycling accounted for about 3.1% of total microplastic emissions in 2017, this share could grow as recycling increases. The study highlights an important paradox: efforts to reduce plastic waste through recycling can themselves contribute to microplastic pollution unless wastewater treatment at recycling facilities is improved.
Combined Effects of Treatment and Sewer Connections to Reduce Future Microplastic Emissions in Rivers
Researchers applied the global water quality model MARINA-Plastics across 10,226 sub-basins worldwide to assess how different microplastic emission reduction scenarios would affect river inputs over the period 2010-2100. They found that combining improved wastewater treatment with expanded sewer connections produced the greatest reductions, highlighting the need for integrated infrastructure and treatment strategies.
Projections of plastic leakage to the environment to 2060
This review examines projected trends for plastic leakage to terrestrial and aquatic environments through 2060, finding that without intervention, plastics use and waste generation are expected to triple, substantially increasing environmental contamination and associated impacts on ecosystems and human health.
Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter
Researchers modelled the impact of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastics, examining how projected shifts in current patterns may alter the accumulation zones and transport pathways of plastic particles measuring less than 5 mm.
A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, degradation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system
Researchers built a global computer model tracking how 8,300 million metric tons of plastic produced since 1950 cycles through land, ocean, and atmosphere as it fragments into microplastics over time. Their modeling shows that even eliminating all new plastic releases from 2025 onward would still leave small microplastics cycling through the environment for millennia, because of the enormous stockpile of plastic waste already accumulated on land.
Marine ecosystems and emerging plastic pollution
This review examines marine plastic pollution as an emerging ecosystem threat, contextualising the problem within global waste generation projections that estimate municipal solid waste will reach 3.40 billion tonnes by 2050, and discussing pathways by which littered and improperly disposed plastics enter marine environments.
Sources, sinks and transformations of plastics in our oceans: Review, management strategies and modelling
This review synthesizes knowledge on ocean plastic sources, sinks, and transformations, and develops a preliminary dynamic model of plastic mobilization in marine environments that can predict distribution trends over time.
The Current Situation and Future of Marine Microplastics: A Comprehensive Review
This comprehensive review covers the origins, environmental distribution, ecological impacts, and future trajectories of marine microplastic pollution, noting that concentrations in some regions are projected to double by 2030. It evaluates current cleanup and mitigation efforts and identifies priority research directions.