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Scenarios for future microplastic pollution reduction: an integrated modeling approach for over 10,000 rivers
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Researchers used the MARINA-Plastics model to simulate microplastic inputs from sewage and open defecation into over 10,000 rivers globally from 2010 to 2100 under multiple SDG-aligned scenarios, finding that combined improvements in sewage treatment and reduced per capita plastic consumption could substantially reduce river pollution, while Africa's contribution is projected to surpass Europe's in the future.
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for improvements in societal practices by 2030. For an urbanizing world, this is especially relevant for the usage of centralized sanitation systems with treatment facilities (SDG6) and plastic consumption by the population (SDG12), which could be important sources of microplastics in rivers. However, the effects of those practices on future river pollution with microplastics are not well understood. This research aims to develop scenarios that incorporate those practices for quantifying their effects on river pollution with microplastics under future urbanization trends globally, and at the sub-basin scale during the period of 2010-2100 with a time step of 10 years. The MARINA-Plastics model (Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to seAs) was used to quantify inputs of microplastics to over 10,000 rivers from sewage systems and open defecation under the baseline scenario of Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2. Next, we developed and applied three new scenarios attempting to implement increased sewage connections with improved treatment (reflecting SDG 6 sanitation practices) and reduced per capita microplastic consumption (reflecting SDG12 practices to avoid waste generation), in isolation and together, under the baseline situation. Modelling results show that Europe and Asia were the two major contributors to global microplastic pollution, and Africa's contribution will increase and exceed Europe's in the future. Increasing the centralized sanitation systems with better treatment will have long-term reduction effects on global microplastic pollution (after 2060). Reducing microplastic usage will reduce global microplastic pollution in the short term (before 2030). Combining both practices is the most effective way to mitigate future microplastic pollution in the long and short terms. Our insights could support policymaking in the implementation of SDGs 6 and 12 oriented practices over time for microplastic reduction in different regions. Also see: https://micro2024.sciencesconf.org/548359/document
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Scenarios for future microplastic pollution reduction: an integrated modeling approach for over 10,000 rivers
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Researchers developed scenarios incorporating UN Sustainable Development Goals 6 and 12 to model the effects of improved sanitation and reduced plastic consumption on microplastic pollution in over 10,000 rivers from 2010 to 2100 using the MARINA-Plastics model. They found that Europe and Asia were the two largest current contributors to global river microplastic pollution, that Africa's contribution is projected to exceed Europe's in the future, and that combining improved sewage treatment with reduced per capita plastic use produced the greatest pollution reductions.
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