Papers

61,005 results
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Article Tier 2

How much are we responsible for removing ocean plastic pollution ?

Researchers developed an integrated system dynamics and input-output model to simulate global marine plastic waste trends through 2050, quantifying the economic effort required from producers and consumers to achieve plastic removal targets across shoreline, coastal, and offshore ocean domains.

2024 Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Article Tier 2

A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, degradation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system.

Researchers developed a global mass budget and box model tracking plastic cycling across terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric reservoirs from 1950 to 2015, incorporating historical production data, fragmentation, and transport dynamics for macroplastics, large microplastics, and small microplastics. The model estimated that the deep ocean (82 Tg) and shelf sediments (116 Tg) represent major plastic reservoirs, and that even maximum feasible reduction scenarios would result in approximately 4-fold increases in atmospheric and aquatic microplastic exposure by 2050 due to legacy plastics already in circulation.

2022 Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Article Tier 2

A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, degradation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system

Researchers built a global computer model tracking how 8,300 million metric tons of plastic produced since 1950 cycles through land, ocean, and atmosphere as it fragments into microplastics over time. Their modeling shows that even eliminating all new plastic releases from 2025 onward would still leave small microplastics cycling through the environment for millennia, because of the enormous stockpile of plastic waste already accumulated on land.

2022 Microplastics and Nanoplastics 44 citations
Article Tier 2

How much innovation is needed to protect the ocean from plastic contamination?

Researchers used a system dynamics model to simulate ocean plastic cleanup scenarios, finding that reducing ocean plastic debris 25% below 2010 levels by 2030 would require removing 135 million tons at a cost of up to €708 billion — far exceeding any single cleanup project — and that technological solutions alone cannot solve the problem without complementary policy interventions.

2019 The Science of The Total Environment 140 citations
Article Tier 2

A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, fragmentation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system

Researchers constructed a global mass budget and box model tracking plastic polymer flows from production through fragmentation into microplastics across land, ocean, and atmosphere. The model suggests ocean microplastic stocks are much larger than surface measurements indicate, and that atmospheric transport plays a significant role in redistribution of marine-derived microplastics.

2025
Article Tier 2

Global environmental plastics dispersal under OECD policy scenarios towards 2060

Researchers modeled how global plastic pollution would spread through the environment under different policy scenarios developed by the OECD, looking ahead to 2060. They found that even with ambitious policy action, significant amounts of plastic will continue leaking into aquatic environments unless waste management improves dramatically worldwide. The study suggests that coordinated global policies targeting both plastic production and waste management are essential to curb environmental plastic pollution.

2024 6 citations
Article Tier 2

A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, degradation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system

This study developed a mass budget and box model to trace the global cycling, degradation, and dispersal of plastics across environmental compartments over time, estimating how plastic accumulates in ocean surface waters, deep sea, beaches, and soils. The model predicted that most plastic entering the ocean ultimately settles in sediments rather than persisting at the surface.

2022 8 citations
Review Tier 2

Sources, sinks and transformations of plastics in our oceans: Review, management strategies and modelling

This review synthesizes knowledge on ocean plastic sources, sinks, and transformations, and develops a preliminary dynamic model of plastic mobilization in marine environments that can predict distribution trends over time.

2022 The Science of The Total Environment 113 citations
Systematic Review Tier 1

Marine plastic pollution: A systematic review of management strategies through a macroscope approach

Researchers applied a systems-level framework to review 176 studies on marine plastic pollution management, finding that waste collection infrastructure and freshwater pathways are critically understudied and that no existing strategy — from beach cleanup to biomaterials — is scalable enough to meaningfully reverse the plastic crisis.

2024 Marine Pollution Bulletin 12 citations
Article Tier 2

Global environmental plastic dispersal under OECD policy scenarios toward 2060

Using a global computer model, researchers simulated how plastic pollution will spread through land, ocean, and atmosphere under different policy scenarios through 2060. Even with strong policy action, microplastics already in the environment will continue to circulate for centuries because existing plastic slowly breaks into smaller pieces. The study estimated the total marine plastic pool at 263 million tons, showing that preventing new pollution is critical but will not quickly solve the microplastic problem already in our ecosystems.

2025 Science Advances 31 citations
Article Tier 2

Significant benefits from international cooperation over marine plastic pollution

Researchers modelled the benefits of international cooperation in addressing marine plastic pollution, finding that the interconnected nature of ocean systems means that unilateral national actions produce substantially smaller reductions in plastic accumulation than coordinated multinational agreements. The study quantified how sharing costs and strategies across nations could significantly improve outcomes for marine ecosystem protection and human well-being.

2023 3 citations
Article Tier 2

Reduction scenarios of plastic waste emission guided by the probability distribution model to avoid additional ocean plastic pollution by 2050s

Researchers developed a probability distribution model to predict future marine macroplastic and microplastic abundances under various waste emission scenarios. The study suggests that to achieve zero additional ocean plastic pollution by 2050, global plastic waste emissions would need to be reduced by at least 32% relative to 2019 levels by around 2035, requiring stringent systemic changes in waste management.

2024 Marine Pollution Bulletin 14 citations
Article Tier 2

Modeling the Global Plastic Pollution in Our Oceans

Students built a mathematical model to estimate global plastic waste generation and ocean runoff from 1980 to 2015 using publicly available data. The model forecasts continued growth in ocean plastic accumulation, underscoring the need for systemic changes in plastic production and waste management to prevent further marine contamination.

2020 Journal of international women's studies 1 citations
Article Tier 2

Planetary Coupling Geometry: Five Computational Tasks for Earth-Scale Geometric Coupling Analysis

Researchers applied a Geometric Coupling Theory framework to five planetary-scale computational tasks including an orbital microplastic collection fleet, estimating that 100 platforms would achieve only 1% ocean surface microplastic removal over 244 years, underscoring the scale mismatch between current technological capacity and the scope of plastic pollution.

2026 Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Article Tier 2

Planetary Coupling Geometry: Five Computational Tasks for Earth-Scale Geometric Coupling Analysis

Researchers applied a Geometric Coupling Theory framework to five planetary-scale computational tasks including an orbital microplastic collection fleet, estimating that 100 platforms would achieve only 1% ocean surface microplastic removal over 244 years, underscoring the scale mismatch between current technological capacity and the scope of plastic pollution.

2026 Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Article Tier 2

Modelling the cleanup of the North Pacific Garbage Patch based on 3 years of operational experience

Researchers modeled a 10-year ocean plastic cleanup effort in the North Pacific Garbage Patch using data from 72 actual collection operations that removed over 372 metric tons between 2021 and 2024, projecting that an optimized fleet of U-shaped net systems could eliminate more than 80% of surface plastics larger than 1.5 cm at a cost of approximately €1.8 billion.

2026 Scientific Reports
Article Tier 2

The fate of missing ocean plastics: Are they just a marine environmental problem?

Researchers estimated a global ocean plastic mass budget to address the paradox of missing ocean plastics, finding that processes like fragmentation, sedimentation, and beaching account for much of the imbalance between plastic inputs and observed floating debris.

2022 The Science of The Total Environment 117 citations
Article Tier 2

Evaluating the environmental impact of cleaning the North Pacific Garbage Patch

Researchers developed a novel plastic pollution impact assessment framework and applied it to evaluate whether cleanup operations targeting the North Pacific Garbage Patch could deliver a net environmental benefit, finding that removing legacy plastic pollution from the subtropical gyre may benefit marine life and carbon cycling when assessed against the environmental costs of the cleanup itself.

2025
Article Tier 2

Evaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution

Researchers modeled five different intervention scenarios for reducing global plastic pollution between 2016 and 2040 and found that even implementing all feasible solutions would only cut pollution rates by 40% compared to 2016 levels. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 710 million metric tons of plastic waste would still accumulate in ecosystems even with immediate action. The study makes clear that coordinated global efforts across consumption reduction, recycling, waste collection, and innovation are urgently needed.

2020 Science 1594 citations
Article Tier 2

All is not lost: deriving a top-down mass budget of plastic at sea

Using a top-down mass budget approach, this study estimated how much plastic is present in the ocean by accounting for known inputs and fragmentation processes. The analysis helps identify where plastic mass is "missing" — whether through burial, beaching, or degradation — a key question for understanding the long-term fate of ocean plastic pollution.

2017 Environmental Research Letters 375 citations
Article Tier 2

Sustainable Plastic Waste Management Using a System Dynamics Approach

This study used system dynamics modeling to analyze municipal solid plastic waste management, simulating how different policy interventions affect waste generation, recycling, and environmental leakage over time. Understanding the dynamics of plastic waste systems helps identify the most effective points for intervention to reduce microplastic pollution.

2023 2 citations
Article Tier 2

Mapping of global plastic value chain and plastic losses to the environment: with a particular focus on marine environment

This report maps the global plastic value chain from production through use to waste management, estimating that millions of tonnes of plastic enter the ocean each year, with significant regional variation in management capacity. The analysis provides the economic and waste management context needed to understand why plastic pollution — and the resulting microplastic problem — continues to grow globally.

2018 Technical University of Denmark, DTU Orbit (Technical University of Denmark, DTU) 47 citations
Article Tier 2

Modelling the Uptake and Exchange of Microplastics in Marine Ecosystems using a Novel, Integrated System of High-Resolution Numerical Models

Researchers developed an integrated high-resolution numerical model to simulate how microplastics are taken up and exchanged among organisms in marine ecosystems. The model couples physical ocean circulation with biological uptake, egestion, and transfer through the food web. Such models help predict how microplastics from different sources distribute throughout marine food chains and ultimately reach fish and other seafood consumed by humans.

2023
Article Tier 2

The Plastic Pathfinder: A Macroplastic Transport and Fate Model for Terrestrial Environments

Researchers introduced the Plastic Pathfinder, a computer model that simulates how plastic waste moves across land through wind, rain, and river systems before reaching the ocean. The model helps identify key transport pathways and accumulation hotspots, which is critical information for targeting plastic pollution interventions.

2021 7 citations