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Global environmental plastic dispersal under OECD policy scenarios toward 2060

Science Advances 2025 31 citations ? Citation count from OpenAlex, updated daily. May differ slightly from the publisher's own count. Score: 63 ? 0–100 AI score estimating relevance to the microplastics field. Papers below 30 are filtered from public browse.

Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Théo Segur, Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Théo Segur, Jeroen E., Sonke Théo Segur, Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Théo Segur, Théo Segur, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Nadiia Yakovenko, Théo Segur, Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Théo Segur, Nadiia Yakovenko, Théo Segur, Jeroen E., Sonke Théo Segur, Jeroen E., Sonke Théo Segur, Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Théo Segur, Théo Segur, Nadiia Yakovenko, Théo Segur, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Théo Segur, Théo Segur, Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Nadiia Yakovenko, Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke Jeroen E., Sonke

Summary

Using a global computer model, researchers simulated how plastic pollution will spread through land, ocean, and atmosphere under different policy scenarios through 2060. Even with strong policy action, microplastics already in the environment will continue to circulate for centuries because existing plastic slowly breaks into smaller pieces. The study estimated the total marine plastic pool at 263 million tons, showing that preventing new pollution is critical but will not quickly solve the microplastic problem already in our ecosystems.

Study Type Environmental

Recent studies and OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) reports provide roadmaps to reduce dispersal of mismanaged plastic waste to aquatic environments. Here, we use a coupled land-ocean-atmosphere model to simulate global plastic and microplastic dispersal for different OECD policy scenarios toward 2060. We establish a global plastic budget for the year 2015, with revised estimates of the total marine plastic pool of 263 teragrams (Tg, million tons), and land to sea plastic transport of 14 Tg per year, implying four to nine times larger leakage than OECD estimates. Model simulation of two ambitious policy scenarios show a peak in land to sea transport of total plastics of 23 Tg per year around 2045 and a decrease thereafter. Environmental concentrations of small microplastics remain high after 2060 due to continuous fragmentation of legacy mismanaged waste on land and indicate the need for remediation of legacy terrestrial plastic waste in policy instruments.

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