We can't find the internet
Attempting to reconnect
Something went wrong!
Hang in there while we get back on track
Global environmental plastic dispersal under OECD policy scenarios toward 2060
AI summary Read the abstract
Using a global computer model, researchers simulated how plastic pollution will spread through land, ocean, and atmosphere under different policy scenarios through 2060. Even with strong policy action, microplastics already in the environment will continue to circulate for centuries because existing plastic slowly breaks into smaller pieces. The study estimated the total marine plastic pool at 263 million tons, showing that preventing new pollution is critical but will not quickly solve the microplastic problem already in our ecosystems.
Recent studies and OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) reports provide roadmaps to reduce dispersal of mismanaged plastic waste to aquatic environments. Here, we use a coupled land-ocean-atmosphere model to simulate global plastic and microplastic dispersal for different OECD policy scenarios toward 2060. We establish a global plastic budget for the year 2015, with revised estimates of the total marine plastic pool of 263 teragrams (Tg, million tons), and land to sea plastic transport of 14 Tg per year, implying four to nine times larger leakage than OECD estimates. Model simulation of two ambitious policy scenarios show a peak in land to sea transport of total plastics of 23 Tg per year around 2045 and a decrease thereafter. Environmental concentrations of small microplastics remain high after 2060 due to continuous fragmentation of legacy mismanaged waste on land and indicate the need for remediation of legacy terrestrial plastic waste in policy instruments.
More Papers Like This
Global environmental plastics dispersal under OECD policy scenarios towards 2060
AI summary Read the abstract
Researchers modeled how global plastic pollution would spread through the environment under different policy scenarios developed by the OECD, looking ahead to 2060. They found that even with ambitious policy action, significant amounts of plastic will continue leaking into aquatic environments unless waste management improves dramatically worldwide. The study suggests that coordinated global policies targeting both plastic production and waste management are essential to curb environmental plastic pollution.
A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, degradation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system
AI summary Read the abstract
Researchers built a global computer model tracking how 8,300 million metric tons of plastic produced since 1950 cycles through land, ocean, and atmosphere as it fragments into microplastics over time. Their modeling shows that even eliminating all new plastic releases from 2025 onward would still leave small microplastics cycling through the environment for millennia, because of the enormous stockpile of plastic waste already accumulated on land.
A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, degradation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system.
AI summary Read the abstract
Researchers developed a global mass budget and box model tracking plastic cycling across terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric reservoirs from 1950 to 2015, incorporating historical production data, fragmentation, and transport dynamics for macroplastics, large microplastics, and small microplastics. The model estimated that the deep ocean (82 Tg) and shelf sediments (116 Tg) represent major plastic reservoirs, and that even maximum feasible reduction scenarios would result in approximately 4-fold increases in atmospheric and aquatic microplastic exposure by 2050 due to legacy plastics already in circulation.
Global Plastics Outlook: Plastic leakage to the environment - projections (Edition 2022)
AI summary Read the abstract
This dataset presents OECD projections for global plastic leakage into the environment from 2019 to 2060 under baseline and policy scenarios, covering both microplastics and macroplastics. The projections show that without strong policy action, the amount of plastic entering environments where it fragments into microplastics will continue to grow substantially.
Review on the distribution of microplastics in the oceans and its impacts: Need for modeling-based approach to investigate the transport and risk of microplastic pollution
AI summary Read the abstract
This review synthesizes evidence on microplastic distribution across global oceans and argues that modeling-based approaches are urgently needed to better understand transport pathways and assess pollution risks at scale.
Research digests by email
When a large batch of papers lands in the Atlas, we read through it and send a short write-up of what stood out.