We can't find the internet
Attempting to reconnect
Something went wrong!
Hang in there while we get back on track
Modeling the Global Plastic Pollution in Our Oceans
Summary
Students built a mathematical model to estimate global plastic waste generation and ocean runoff from 1980 to 2015 using publicly available data. The model forecasts continued growth in ocean plastic accumulation, underscoring the need for systemic changes in plastic production and waste management to prevent further marine contamination.
Plastic is everywhere—from our plastic bottles and straws to the inside of our phones and the clothes we wear every day. Its widespread use has left a legacy of trash, with large amounts of plastic spilling from landfills into oceans. The accumulation of plastic debris in our oceans has severely affected marine life and has even entered into the human food chain. In this project, we created a mathematical model to estimate global plastic waste-generation and ocean runoff using existing data from 1980 to 2015. Using a dynamic system, we calculated the amount of plastic that ends up in landfills each year, based on yearly global plastic production as well as recycling and incineration rates. Using country-specific data, we also modeled yearly ocean runoff as a percent of the plastic waste from coastal mismanaged landfills. Assuming a business-as-usual scenario, we used regression models to extrapolate to the year 2050 and estimated that the cumulative ocean plastic waste by 2050 will be between 710-1,070 MT, which is the equivalent of 444-669 grocery bags filled with plastic for every foot of coastline in the world. We then used our model to study how changes in governmental policies and corporate practices can help reduce ocean plastic pollution. In particular, we assumed (1) a ban on single-use plastics in high-income countries, and (2) improvements in waste-management infrastructures in regions of the world with high ocean runoff, and studied the reduction in global plastic runoff under these two scenarios. Finally, we studied the impact of various clean-up strategies such as ocean U-boat contraption boats or river filters has on plastic debris in our oceans. The effect of these clean-up strategies is very small given the magnitude of the ocean plastic pollution, but a significant reduction in ocean runoff can be achieved through improvements in waste management infrastructure and a reduction in single-use plastics in SE Asia.
Sign in to start a discussion.
More Papers Like This
Plastic waste discharge to the global ocean constrained by seawater observations
Researchers used ocean plastic concentration data combined with multiple ocean circulation models to estimate that approximately 0.7 million metric tons of plastic enter the ocean each year, though uncertainty spans nearly 1.5 orders of magnitude. The study emphasizes that improving emission inventories and ocean monitoring data are the highest priorities for reducing uncertainty in global plastic pollution estimates.
Modelling global river export of microplastics to the marine environment: Sources and future trends
Researchers developed the GREMiS model to estimate global river export of microplastics to the ocean, projecting that annual marine inputs will increase significantly under business-as-usual plastic production scenarios.
Tracking Marine Litter With a Global Ocean Model: Where Does It Go? Where Does It Come From?
Using a global ocean model, researchers simulated the movement of plastic waste released from countries around the world to track where marine litter ends up and where it comes from. The study found that ocean currents create a complex web of connections between distant countries, meaning plastic released in one region can wash up on far-away shores. The results are publicly available through an interactive website and provide a quantitative framework for understanding international responsibility for ocean plastic pollution.
River plastic emissions to the world’s oceans
Researchers built a global model to estimate how much plastic waste enters the ocean from rivers, combining data on waste management, population density, and water flow patterns. They estimated that rivers deliver between 1.15 and 2.41 million tonnes of plastic to the oceans annually, with over 74% of emissions occurring between May and October. The top 20 polluting rivers, mostly in Asia, accounted for 67% of the global total, providing key data for targeting cleanup and prevention efforts.
The “plastic cycle”: a watershed‐scale model of plastic pools and fluxes
This paper presented a watershed-scale conceptual model of plastic sources, fluxes, and fates — including landfill containment, environmental persistence, atmospheric interactions, and ocean export — arguing that terrestrial and freshwater plastic stocks are severely underappreciated in global accounting.