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61,005 resultsShowing papers similar to Modelling future coastal water pollution: impacts of point sources, socio-economic developments & multiple pollutants
ClearUrbanization: an increasing source of multiple pollutants to rivers in the 21st century
Researchers modeled the combined impact of urbanization on river pollution from nutrients, microplastics, triclosan, and pathogens across over 10,000 rivers globally. They project that by the end of the century, around 80% of the world's population could live near rivers with multi-pollutant problems under high urbanization scenarios. The study suggests that advanced wastewater treatment could technically prevent future pollution in many regions, though Africa faces particularly severe challenges.
Global multi-pollutant modelling: uncovering new perspectives for river exports of nutrients, plastics, and chemicals
This thesis modeled river exports of nutrients, plastics, and chemicals to coastal waters worldwide using a new multi-pollutant model. Researchers found that diffuse sources contributed over 95% of nitrogen and macroplastic exports, while point sources accounted for about 40% of phosphorus and microplastic exports globally. The study projects that 56-78% of the global population will live near more polluted river basins by 2100, with low-income regions in Africa and South Asia facing the highest multi-pollutant exposure.
Future coastal water pollution under global change: multi-pollutant modeling
Researchers describe a global multi-pollutant modeling framework for assessing future coastal water pollution from nutrients, plastics, and chemicals under climate change and urbanization scenarios, arguing that managing multiple pollutants together is essential for achieving clean coastal water goals.
Future Scenarios for River Exports of Multiple Pollutants by Sources and Sub‐Basins Worldwide: Rising Pollution for the Indian Ocean
Global modeling projected that under an economy-driven scenario, river exports of nutrients and microplastics would double by 2100, with the Indian Ocean facing the largest increases, while a sustainability-driven scenario could achieve up to 83% reductions.
Combined Effects of Treatment and Sewer Connections to Reduce Future Microplastic Emissions in Rivers
Researchers applied the global water quality model MARINA-Plastics across 10,226 sub-basins worldwide to assess how different microplastic emission reduction scenarios would affect river inputs over the period 2010-2100. They found that combining improved wastewater treatment with expanded sewer connections produced the greatest reductions, highlighting the need for integrated infrastructure and treatment strategies.
Scenarios for future microplastic pollution reduction: an integrated modeling approach for over 10,000 rivers
Researchers used the MARINA-Plastics model to simulate microplastic inputs from sewage and open defecation into over 10,000 rivers globally from 2010 to 2100 under multiple SDG-aligned scenarios, finding that combined improvements in sewage treatment and reduced per capita plastic consumption could substantially reduce river pollution, while Africa's contribution is projected to surpass Europe's in the future.
Causes of coastal waters pollution with nutrients, chemicals and plastics worldwide
Researchers developed a global model to quantify how rivers transport nutrients, chemicals, microplastics, and macroplastics from land sources to coastal waters across more than 10,000 sub-basins. They found that sewage is responsible for 40-95% of phosphorus and microplastics reaching the oceans, while agricultural runoff and mismanaged waste dominate nitrogen and macroplastic pollution. The study reveals that nearly 45% of global land area qualifies as a multi-pollutant hotspot, home to 89% of the world's population.
Domestic waste management strategies to reduce future river export of macro- and microplastics to the coastal waters of Africa
Researchers applied the MARINA-Plastics model to African river systems to identify effective domestic waste management strategies, finding that improved waste collection and treatment could substantially reduce river export of macro- and microplastics to coastal waters under urbanization and climate change pressures.
The future of the Black Sea: More pollution in over half of the rivers
Researchers modelled future pollution trends in 107 rivers draining into the Black Sea and projected that over half will carry higher loads of nutrients, microplastics, pathogens, and triclosan by 2050-2100, despite population declines, due to increasing urbanisation and economic development.
Global multi-pollutant modelling of water quality: scientific challenges and future directions
Researchers argue that tackling global water pollution requires modeling multiple contaminants — microplastics, nutrients, chemicals, and pathogens — simultaneously rather than studying each in isolation. They identify pollution hotspots across Europe, North America, and South Asia where rivers carry dangerous combinations of these pollutants, and call for models that can directly inform policy decisions.
Scenarios for future microplastic pollution reduction: an integrated modeling approach for over 10,000 rivers
Researchers developed scenarios incorporating UN Sustainable Development Goals 6 and 12 to model the effects of improved sanitation and reduced plastic consumption on microplastic pollution in over 10,000 rivers from 2010 to 2100 using the MARINA-Plastics model. They found that Europe and Asia were the two largest current contributors to global river microplastic pollution, that Africa's contribution is projected to exceed Europe's in the future, and that combining improved sewage treatment with reduced per capita plastic use produced the greatest pollution reductions.
Point-source microplastic input to the river and coastal zone via wastewater treatment facilities: a case study from a tropical mega-city
Point-source inputs of microplastics from a specific industrial or municipal source were quantified in both a river and the adjacent coastal zone. The study links land-based pollution sources to downstream and coastal microplastic concentrations, supporting targeted source-control interventions.
Microplastics in global rivers: Sustainable practices
Global modeling of microplastics in rivers from 2010–2100 projects nearly a tripling of concentrations by 2100 under baseline scenarios, with African rivers joining Europe and Asia as major pollution hotspots, while improved sanitation could substantially reduce these inputs.
Modelling global river export of microplastics to the marine environment: Sources and future trends
Researchers developed the GREMiS model to estimate global river export of microplastics to the ocean, projecting that annual marine inputs will increase significantly under business-as-usual plastic production scenarios.
Ten years of MARINA modeling: Multi-pollutant hotspots and their sources under global change
A decade of MARINA water quality modeling identified multi-pollutant hotspots in rivers, lakes, and coastal waters under historical and projected future global change scenarios, highlighting nutrient pollution and microplastics as co-occurring stressors in heavily impacted watersheds.
The future of Chinese rivers: Increasing plastics, nutrients and Cryptosporidium pollution in half of the basins
Researchers modeled the future trajectory of multiple pollutants including microplastics in 395 Chinese river basins from 2010 to 2050. The study projects that nutrient, plastic, and pathogen pollution could increase by 41 to 88 percent, with central, eastern, and southern sub-basins facing the greatest contamination risks.
Export of microplastics from land to sea. A modelling approach
Researchers developed a model to estimate how much microplastic flows from European rivers into the sea, accounting for different sources and sewage treatment effectiveness. They found that tire and road wear particles and textile fibers from laundry are the two largest sources, together making up over 70% of river-borne microplastics. About two-thirds of the modeled microplastic emissions flow into the Mediterranean and Black Sea, largely due to less effective wastewater treatment in those regions.
Leaving a plastic legacy: current and future scenarios for mismanaged plastic waste in rivers
Researchers estimated that 0.8 million tonnes of mismanaged plastic waste enters rivers annually, affecting 84% of global rivers by surface area, and project a nearly three-fold increase by 2060 — though improved waste governance could reduce this pollution by up to 72%.
A Comprehensive Modeling of Microplastic Emission from Wastewater Treatment Plants to the Sea via Rivers in China
Researchers built a comprehensive model of microplastic emissions from over 10,000 wastewater treatment plants across China, estimating that treated wastewater releases roughly 45 million kilograms of microplastics annually. Remarkably, untreated sewage contributes a comparable amount, indicating that expanding treatment capacity is critical. After accounting for river retention, an estimated 41 to 82 million kilograms of microplastics still reach the sea each year.
Future microplastics in the Black Sea: River exports and reduction options for zero pollution
Using river input modeling, researchers projected future microplastic loads entering the Black Sea from rivers and modeled five pollution-reduction scenarios including improved wastewater treatment and reduced plastic use. The analysis identified combined reduction strategies as necessary to meaningfully cut microplastic delivery to the sea.
Risk Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Urban Discharge Fraction and Eutrophication in Large European River Networks
Researchers assessed how climate change could worsen water quality in European rivers by increasing nutrient pollution from urban areas. While not focused on microplastics, this study highlights the broader environmental pressures on freshwater systems that also carry microplastic contamination.
A triple increase in global river basins with water scarcity due to future pollution
Researchers modeled global water availability through 2050 and found that nitrogen pollution from agriculture and cities could triple the number of river basins facing water scarcity, potentially affecting 3 billion more people beyond those already impacted by simple water shortages. The findings underscore that clean water policy must address pollution, not just supply.
An Analytical Framework for Determining the Ecological Risks of Wastewater Discharges in River Networks Under Climate Change
Researchers developed an analytical framework to assess ecological risks from wastewater treatment plant discharges into river networks under climate change scenarios, finding that reduced river flows from climate change will amplify ecological risks from effluent contaminants including microplastics.
Addressing the global challenge of coastal sewage pollution
This review examines how untreated sewage -- which carries microplastics along with nutrients, pathogens, and heavy metals -- pollutes coastal environments where nearly half the world's population lives. Over 80% of sewage enters the environment without treatment, threatening marine ecosystems and human health through contaminated seafood and waterborne diseases.