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Modelling global river export of microplastics to the marine environment: Sources and future trends
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Researchers developed the GREMiS model to estimate global river export of microplastics to the ocean, projecting that annual marine inputs will increase significantly under business-as-usual plastic production scenarios.
Microplastics, transported by rivers to oceans, are triggering environmental concern. This study aims to better understand river export of microplastics from land to sea. We developed the Global Riverine Export of Microplastics into Seas (GREMiS) model, a global, spatially explicit model for analysing the annual microplastics export to coastal seas. Our results indicate that riverine microplastics export varies among world regions, with several hotspots, e.g., South East Asia, and, depending on the 2050 scenario, may be doubled ('Business as usual') or halved due to improved waste management ('Environment profits'). Globally, our model simulations indicated fragmentation of macroplastics as the main source of microplastics, but this result heavily depends on the assumed fragmentation rate. Sewerage discharges contributed only 20%, ranging from 1% (Africa) to 60% (OECD countries) and decreasing by 2050 as a result of improved sanitation. We conclude that, combating microplastics in the aquatic environment requires more region-specific analyses.
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Researchers compared existing global models estimating riverine plastic input to the ocean, identifying key sources of divergence including the number of rivers modelled, item-to-mass conversion factors, and extrapolation methods from microplastic to macroplastic estimates. The comparative analysis highlighted that modelling choices lead to substantial uncertainty in global plastic flux estimates, underscoring the need for a standardised science-policy framework to evaluate plastic pollution mitigation.
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When a large batch of papers lands in the Atlas, we read through it and send a short write-up of what stood out.