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61,005 resultsShowing papers similar to Using Dynamic Release Modeling to Predict Historic and Current Macro- and Microplastic Releases
ClearUsing Dynamic Release Modeling to Predict Historic and Current Macro- and Microplastic Releases
Researchers developed a Dynamic Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis model coupled with a release model to quantify historic and current macro- and microplastic emissions in Switzerland, providing a companion dataset to a publication in Resources, Conservation and Recycling.
Using dynamic release modeling to predict historic and current macro- and microplastic releases
Using a dynamic material flow model, researchers tracked how macro- and microplastics have been released to the Swiss environment from 1950 to 2022 across 35 product categories and 183 release pathways. The model found that per-capita plastic use peaked around 2010 and has since declined slightly, but over the full period roughly 27 kg of macroplastics and 4 kg of microplastics per person were released to the environment — providing a quantitative baseline for designing more targeted reduction policies.
Advancing plastic release modeling: updating emission flows and extending the system boundary from Switzerland to Europe
Researchers updated a Swiss plastic release model and extended its geographic scope to the European scale by integrating improved emission pathway data from recent studies and incorporating previously excluded plastic release sources. The revised model offers higher-resolution estimates of plastic flows across European countries, enabling better-informed policy decisions on reducing plastic emissions to the environment.
Advancing plastic release modeling: updating emission flows and extending the system boundary from Switzerland to Europe
Researchers updated and geographically extended a plastic release model originally developed for Switzerland to cover the full European scale, incorporating improved parameterisation of emission pathways based on recent empirical studies and expanding the system boundary to include previously unmodelled sources. The revised model provides more accurate estimates of plastic flows from products and waste streams into environmental compartments across Europe.
Probabilistic material flow analysis and emissions modeling for five commodity plastics (PUR, ABS, PA, PC, and PMMA) as macroplastics and microplastics✰
Researchers developed probabilistic material flow models for five engineering plastics (PUR, ABS, PA, PC, PMMA) tracking their flows from production through use to environmental release, providing quantitative estimates of microplastic emissions to air, water, and soil across Europe.
Mapping Plastic and Plastic Additive Cycles in Coastal Countries: A Norwegian Case Study
Researchers developed a comprehensive method using dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis to map the entire plastic cycle in Norway, including 232 plastic additives. For the first time, they modeled the progressive leaching of microplastics during the use phase of consumer products. The study provides a detailed picture of how plastic polymers and their chemical additives move through coastal economies and eventually reach the environment.
A proxy-based approach to predict spatially resolved emissions of macro- and microplastic to the environment
Using land-use statistics, traffic data, and wastewater infrastructure as proxies, researchers created high-resolution maps of microplastic and macroplastic emissions across Switzerland at the regional level. The approach reveals that plastic pollution is concentrated near urban and high-traffic areas but varies substantially by polymer type and emission source.
Reconciling plastic release: Comprehensive modeling of macro- and microplastic flows to the environment
How much plastic actually escapes into the environment each year? This comprehensive Swiss study built a detailed model tracking 245 different plastic release pathways across seven polymer types, estimating that about 222 grams of plastic per person per year enters the environment — with PET and polypropylene the largest contributors. Crucially, macroplastics (larger pieces) made up 82% of that total, and overall estimates were substantially lower than previous studies, suggesting that in well-managed countries with good waste infrastructure, plastic emissions may be lower than widely assumed — though still significant.
Polymer-Specific Modeling of the Environmental Emissions of Seven Commodity Plastics As Macro- and Microplastics
A polymer-specific material flow model estimated the environmental emissions of seven major commodity plastics as both macro- and microplastics into aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, finding significant differences in emission pathways by plastic type. The model highlights that understanding polymer-specific behavior is essential for accurate pollution estimates and effective mitigation strategies.
Plastic dispersion and accumulation in the environment using a mass flow analysis approach
Researchers developed a material flow analysis model to quantify global plastic emissions and project their environmental accumulation through 2050 under business-as-usual, reduction, and zero-production scenarios. Results show that rubber microplastics from car tyres account for over 60% of global microplastic releases, accumulating primarily along roadsides and in subsurface waters, while packaging plastics from lower-middle-income countries dominate macroplastic inputs.
Regionalized Characterization Factors for Microplastic Emissions in Life Cycle Assessment Considering Multimedia Fate Modelling
Researchers developed location-specific impact factors for microplastic emissions to be used in life cycle assessments, accounting for how plastics move between air, water, soil, and sediment. Their model covers nine world regions and shows that the environmental impact of microplastic emissions varies significantly depending on where they are released. The study helps fill a gap in current environmental impact tools, which tend to overlook plastic pollution when comparing products.
A local-to-global emissions inventory of macroplastic pollution
Using machine learning and probabilistic material flow analysis, researchers built the first local-to-global inventory of macroplastic waste emissions, estimating 52.5 million metric tonnes are released annually worldwide — with over half burned in the open. The study pinpoints emission hotspots at the level of 50,000 individual municipalities, providing the most detailed evidence baseline yet to guide international plastic pollution treaty negotiations.
Dynamic material flow analysis of microplastics lost from artificial turfs: A case study from Norway
Researchers used dynamic material flow analysis to quantify microplastic losses from artificial turf football fields in Norway over their entire service life. The model estimated that significant quantities of rubber infill microplastics are lost annually to surrounding environments via runoff and wind, informing the EU REACH restriction on intentionally added microplastics.
Dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis of rubber release from tires into the environment
A dynamic material flow analysis model estimated the annual and cumulative release of rubber from vehicle tires into the environment via road wear, finding that tire rubber represents a substantial fraction of total microplastic pollution in terrestrial and aquatic systems. The study helps quantify this important but often overlooked microplastic source.
Modelling microplastic fibre emissions from synthetic textiles: An Australian case
Researchers modeled microplastic fiber emissions from synthetic textiles across Australia, estimating emission quantities, identifying geographic hotspots, and tracing fibres to their environmental receiving compartments. The model found that domestic laundry is the dominant emission source, with most fibres ultimately reaching wastewater treatment systems or water bodies.
Étude du relargage de Microplastiques lors de la phase d'usage des produits issus de l'industrie de la plasturgie
This French-language study characterized microplastic release from plastic products during use in the plastics industry, evaluating how product type, mechanical stress, and material properties influence particle generation rates — providing data relevant to occupational and consumer exposure assessment.
New Management Strategy Framework for Effectively Managing Microplastic in Circular System from Plastic Product Manufacturing to Waste Treatment Facility
Researchers proposed a new management strategy framework for controlling microplastic release throughout the lifecycle of plastic products, from manufacturing through end-of-life in circular economy systems, incorporating soil, atmospheric, groundwater, and river-based pollution pathways. The framework provides actionable guidance for producers, regulators, and waste managers to systematically reduce microplastic entry into land and marine environments.
A mass budget and box model of global plastics cycling, fragmentation and dispersal in the land-ocean-atmosphere system
Researchers constructed a global mass budget and box model tracking plastic polymer flows from production through fragmentation into microplastics across land, ocean, and atmosphere. The model suggests ocean microplastic stocks are much larger than surface measurements indicate, and that atmospheric transport plays a significant role in redistribution of marine-derived microplastics.
Predicting microplastic masses in river networks with high spatial resolution at country level
Scientists built a computer model to predict microplastic levels in every section of Switzerland's rivers and lakes for seven different plastic types. They found that the amount of microplastics in any given spot depends heavily on local features like nearby lakes, land use, and river connections, not just population density. This kind of detailed mapping helps identify pollution hotspots and assess where human exposure through drinking water might be highest.
Is it fate? Quantifying the probabilities of mismanaged macroplastics reaching the ocean within the Life Cycle Assessment framework
Researchers developed a probabilistic framework within the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology to quantify the likelihood of mismanaged macroplastics reaching the ocean at different life cycle stages, aiming to better quantify the contribution of macroplastics to marine pollution and their role as precursors to microplastics through fragmentation.
Forecasting global plastic production and microplastic emission using advanced optimised discrete grey model
Researchers used advanced mathematical models to forecast future global plastic production and microplastic emissions. Their projections suggest that both production and emissions will continue rising significantly in the coming decades if current trends hold. The study provides policymakers with quantitative predictions that could help guide strategies for reducing plastic pollution.
Simulating microplastics temporal dynamics, driving mechanisms and giving insights on sources
Researchers developed a watershed-scale model to simulate temporal dynamics of microplastic concentrations across air, soil, and water compartments, incorporating land use, hydrology, and seasonal variation. The model reproduced observed patterns in a French river catchment and identified agricultural soils as the dominant terrestrial source to receiving waters.
Material flow analysis-based assessment of polypropylene-fiber-containing microplastics released from disposable masks: Characterizing distribution in the environmental media
Researchers used material flow analysis to track where polypropylene microplastics from discarded disposable face masks end up in the environment. They found that the vast majority of mask-derived microplastics accumulate in landfills and soil, with smaller amounts reaching water systems. The study quantifies how the pandemic-driven surge in mask use has created a new and measurable source of microplastic pollution.
Study of the release of microplastics during the use phase of products from the plastics industry
Researchers investigated microplastic release during the use phase of plastic consumer products across multiple product categories from the plastics industry, examining how ordinary use conditions generate plastic particles that enter food and the environment. The study contributes to understanding the full microplastic lifecycle as the plastics industry transitions toward reuse-oriented product models.