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How confident are you in the ability of experts to provide reliable information? Evidence from a choice experiment on microplastics
Summary
This study examined whether people's pre-existing trust in expert knowledge shaped how they responded to a survey asking about willingness to pay for microplastic reduction policies in the UK. Researchers found that respondents who trusted experts more were less likely to stick with the status quo and expressed greater certainty in their choices, though the effect on actual dollar amounts was modest. Understanding how public trust in science shapes environmental policy support is important for designing effective communications about microplastic risks.
Abstract Policy making in areas of scientific uncertainty may be shaped by the public’s stated preferences (SP). SP surveys provide respondents with information about the scenario, typically from expert sources. Here, we tested whether respondents’ pre-existing confidence in the ability of experts in general to provide reliable information was associated with (a) status quo bias, (b) response certainty and (c) willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. Using 670 responses to a 2020 choice experiment on microplastic restrictions in the UK, we show that being ex ante more confident was significantly related to less frequent status quo choices and higher response certainty. However, we only observed differences in mean WTP for our ‘microplastics released’ attribute. Our findings suggest that confidence in expert-provided information shapes how respondents engage with SP surveys, particularly in contexts of scientific uncertainty. Future work to further understand determinants and consequences of perceived expert trustworthiness would be insightful.