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Modelling framework
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This is a methodological annex describing the modeling framework used to generate plastic use and waste projections for the OECD Plastics Outlook database through 2060. It is a technical methods document rather than an original research study.
This Annex presents the methodologies applied to provide the projections contained in this report and in the OECD Plastics Outlook Database. These projections include, for the 2019 -2060 period, plastics use, plastic waste generation, plastic waste management and related environmental impacts. The environmental impacts are described by theme: (i) leakage to the environment, detailing the macroplastics and microplastics fractions, (ii) leakage to aquatic environments, (iii) particulate matter emissions from tyre and brake abrasion, (v) greenhouse gas emissions from the plastics lifecycle, and (vi) lifecycle impacts related to the production and disposal of plastics.
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This technical annex describes the modelling methodologies used to construct the OECD Global Plastics Outlook Database, covering estimates of plastics use, waste generation, waste management, and environmental leakage. The database includes estimates of microplastic releases from tire and brake abrasion and other sources.
Global Plastics Outlook: Plastic leakage to the environment - projections (Edition 2022)
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This dataset presents OECD projections for global plastic leakage into the environment from 2019 to 2060 under baseline and policy scenarios, covering both microplastics and macroplastics. The projections show that without strong policy action, the amount of plastic entering environments where it fragments into microplastics will continue to grow substantially.
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