Trajectory, fate, and magnitude of continental microplastic loads to the inner shelf: A case study of the world's largest coastal shallow lagoon

The Patos Lagoon estuary is a highly significant ecosystem where freshwater from a vast and densely populated area continuously flows into the Atlantic Ocean by coastal plumes, exporting not only freshwater but also sediment, nutrients, plastics, and other contaminants. In this work, numerical modeling tools together with field data were used to assess for the first time the capacity of the coastal plume to export microplastics (MPs) to the inner shelf under different hydrodynamic conditions. Two field surveys were conducted during plume events to quantify MP concentrations and validate the model approach. A bottom-up approach was employed to estimate the potential MP export from the estuary's domain to the Atlantic Ocean. MP concentration in surface plume waters ranged from 0.20 items m to 1.37 items m, confirmed by FTIR as synthetic polymers in a 90 %, being Polypropylene (PP) and Polyethylene (PE) the most abundant in a 73 %. The accumulation pattern was observed on the plume's frontal system, consistent with simulation results. The estimated average MP potential export rate attained 9.0 million items day during moderate plume events and 47.5 million items day during high discharge plume events. Strong discharge events, coupled with intense northeast winds, facilitated rapid southwestward export of MPs. Conversely, moderate to weak discharge events retained MPs closer to the estuary's mouth, enabling either longer trajectories or earlier deposition. Significant MP accumulation hotspots were identified in the gyre between the jetties and Cassino beach, as well as in the saline front within the plume boundaries. These accumulation zones may function as reservoirs for MP particles, potentially posing threats to local ecosystems. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for ongoing monitoring efforts to assess potential harmful interactions over time.