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Quantifying Microplastic Flux and Control across Environmental Interfaces: An Analytical Dynamics Study
Summary
Scientists built a math model to track how microplastics move between land, rivers, oceans, and our bodies—and found that the ocean acts as the planet's biggest microplastic "sink," while how much plastic ends up in humans depends heavily on how fast it moves between these different environments. This matters because it means cutting plastic pollution at the source (rather than just cleaning it up after the fact) could meaningfully reduce the amount of microplastic we're exposed to over time, giving policymakers a data-backed tool for deciding where to focus prevention efforts.
Abstract: Microplastic (MP) pollution is a serious anthropogenic risk to the planet’s ecosystems, and a complex understanding of the flux of pollutants between different environmental compartments is required for effective remediation. In this paper, a new nonlinear mathematical model is proposed to simulate MP fluxes in the terrestrial, aquatic, marine, and human biological environment. To obtain a solution to the system of first-order differential equations, the Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) is used, which yields highly accurate analytical solutions that provide greater physical understanding than numerical solutions. To improve the model’s ability to resist stochastic environmental variability, the analytical solution is coupled with a Machine Learning (ML) strategy based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Random Forest Regression. Additionally, Optimal Control Theory is used to assess the combined effect of source reduction and remediation measures. The results show that HPM leads to fast convergence, identifying the marine environment as the main global sink and demonstrating the susceptibility of human bioaccumulation to transfer rates between compartments. By aligning with the Quintuple Helix innovation model, this coupled model offers a scientifically sound basis for evidence-informed policy-making, providing a strategic roadmap for sustainable environmental remediation and public health protection against chronic microplastic exposure. Keywords: Microplastic Pollution, Compartment Model, Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM), Optimal Control, Nonlinear Differential Equations, Bioaccumulation, Environmental Policy.