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Market dynamics of biodegradable bio-based plastics: Projections and linkages to European policies
Summary
Researchers used a system dynamics model to project global and European market growth for biodegradable bio-based plastics through 2030, finding that policy incentives and rising consumer demand could expand production volumes significantly, though feedstock competition and cost parity remain challenges.
This paper analyzes the future market perspectives for biodegradable bio-based plastics at the global and the European level. Relevant determinants of demand are identified, categorized, and used as a basis for own projections. By implementing a system dynamics approach, the evolution of global production capacities is modelled on an annual basis for the period until 2030. To capture the inherent uncertainty in such a long-term projection, different scenarios are defined and applied to the model, reflecting different developments in GDP growth, oil, and bioplastic feedstock prices. In this way, our results document the sensitivity of the bioplastics market towards changes in the macroeconomic environment. The simulations are complemented by a discussion of the relevant regulatory framework at the European level and its potential repercussions on market growth. The results indicate a significant growth potential, which however turns out to be very sensitive towards both economic and political impact factors.