The impact of china’s ban on plastic waste exporting countries

Current transformations in the global trade in plastic waste are being driven by new environmental regulations, sustainability policies, and individual countries' decisions on the import of recyclables. The People's Republic of China's 2018 ban on plastic waste imports has significantly changed the structure of global recycling flows, calling into question the sustainability of the centralized recycling model. The study aims to assess the consequences of this decision for exporting countries, analyze their adaptation trajectories, and classify changes in trade dynamics in 2008–2024. The paper uses quantitative methods to analyze statistical data, builds the author's own trade flow change rate (TFCR), and applies cluster analysis using the K-means method to typologize countries by the nature of changes in the structure of plastic waste exports. Based on the data of international organizations (OECD, UNEP, ITC), regional disparities in the production and processing of plastics are characterized. Three groups of countries with different adaptation models are identified: resilient, partially adapted, and those that have lost market share. It was found that countries with a lower initial level of dependence on China were more likely to reorient to alternative markets or increase domestic capacity. Particular attention is paid to the evolution of China's environmental policy, which, after the ban, is aimed at developing its own processing technologies, controlling unauthorized imports and relocating export-oriented enterprises to Southeast Asia. It is substantiated that the current structure of the global recycling market is becoming more fragmented, asymmetric and technologically differentiated. The results of the study can be used to formulate a waste management policy, taking into account the risks inherent in new forms of environmental logistics.