Global Plastic Industry Transition Addressing Key Drivers of the Triple Planetary Crisis

The sustainable transition of the plastic industry─shifting from its fossil reliance and linear produce-use-dispose model─is imperative to minimize its contribution to the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. While previous studies assessed transition strategies in isolation, focused mainly on climate impacts, and neglected regional differences, our integrated model assesses transition strategies, globally and regionally, addressing the potential co-benefits and trade-offs across several key drivers of the triple planetary crisis. We note that other important impacts, such as microplastic leakage, remain to be quantified. Achieving a net-zero plastic industry by 2050 (1 Gt annual production) is technically feasible through lignocellulose residue-based feedstocks, recycling, and carbon capture. Meanwhile, this would require consuming all available global lignocellulose residues (2.3 Gt), early retirement of fossil infrastructure to avoid at least 0.35 Gt CO2-eq emissions, and ensuring grid decarbonization, presenting great challenges. Without internationally coordinated relocation of plastic production facilities or trade of biomass feedstocks or the derived intermediate chemicals, global net zero becomes unattainable. The global climate benefits through the transition come with trade-offs in higher land-use-related biodiversity loss and particulate matter-related health impacts, especially in regions with vulnerable ecosystems and dense populations, necessitating tailored regional solutions. Reducing primary plastics production could ease the transition, but unsustainable material substitutes need to be avoided.