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Risks of floating microplastic in the global ocean
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Researchers assessed the ecological risk of floating microplastics in the global ocean by comparing measured concentrations with toxicity thresholds for 23 marine species. They found that in 2010, roughly 0.17% of the ocean surface layer posed a threatening risk, with that fraction projected to rise to 1.62% by 2100 under worst-case scenarios. The Mediterranean Sea and Yellow Sea were identified as current hotspots where microplastic concentrations already pose measurable ecological risks.
Despite the ubiquitous and persistent presence of microplastic (MP) in marine ecosystems, knowledge of its potential harmful ecological effects is low. In this work, we assessed the risk of floating MP (1 μm-5 mm) to marine ecosystems by comparing ambient concentrations in the global ocean with available ecotoxicity data. The integration of twenty-three species-specific effect threshold concentration data in a species sensitivity distribution yielded a median unacceptable level of 1.21 ∗ 10 MP m³ (95% CI: 7.99 ∗ 10-1.49 ∗ 10 MP m³). We found that in 2010 for 0.17% of the surface layer (0-5 m) of the global ocean a threatening risk would occur. By 2050 and 2100, this fraction increases to 0.52% and 1.62%, respectively, according to the worst-case predicted future plastic discharge into the ocean. Our results reveal a spatial and multidecadal variability of MP-related risk at the global ocean surface. For example, we have identified the Mediterranean Sea and the Yellow Sea as hotspots of marine microplastic risks already now and even more pronounced in future decades.
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Researchers assessed the current and projected risk of floating microplastics in marine and freshwater ecosystems globally by comparing field occurrence concentrations to ecotoxicity thresholds using probability distributions that account for size mismatches between sampling and toxicity studies. Results estimated that 37% of marine environments already exceed conservative risk thresholds protective of 95% of species, with this fraction projected to rise to 47.4% by 2040 under a business-as-usual scenario.
Integrating species sensitivity distributions and toxicity thresholds: A probabilistic risk assessment of microplastics in Yazhou Bay, South China Sea
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Researchers assessed microplastic abundance and ecological risk in Yazhou Bay, South China Sea, finding surface water concentrations of 3,437 n/m³ with a modeled estimate reaching 241,000 n/m³ when accounting for smaller particle sizes. Species sensitivity distribution analysis identified significant ecological risk to marine organisms at detected concentrations.
Risk assessment of microplastics in the ocean: Modelling approach and first conclusions
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Ocean microplastic concentrations are projected to increase 50-fold by 2100, and while average open-ocean levels may remain below the derived safe threshold of 6,650 particles/m³, heavily polluted coastal and benthic zones are expected to exceed safe concentrations in the second half of this century.
Currently monitored microplastics pose negligible ecological risk to the global ocean
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A global probabilistic ecological risk assessment found that microplastics of 100–5000 µm pose negligible risk to ocean ecosystems at currently measured concentrations, but cautioned that particles below 10 µm — which are largely unmeasured — may present much higher risk due to increased bioavailability.
Assessment of potential ecological risk for microplastic particles
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Researchers developed a framework for assessing the ecological risk of microplastic particles, incorporating particle characteristics, environmental concentrations, and species sensitivity data. The assessment identified conditions under which current environmental microplastic levels pose significant risk to aquatic organisms.
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When a large batch of papers lands in the Atlas, we read through it and send a short write-up of what stood out.