Where and Why Do Submarine Canyons Remain Connected to the Shore During Sea‐Level Rise? Insights From Global Topographic Analysis and Bayesian Regression

Abstract The efficiency of sediment routing from land to the ocean depends on the position of submarine canyon heads with regard to terrestrial sediment sources. We aim to identify the main controls on whether a submarine canyon head remains connected to terrestrial sediment input during Holocene sea‐level rise. Globally, we identified 798 canyon heads that are currently located at the 120m‐depth contour (the Last Glacial Maximum shoreline) and 183 canyon heads that are connected to the shore (within a distance of 6 km) during the present‐day highstand. Regional hotspots of shore‐connected canyons are the Mediterranean active margin and the Pacific coast of Central and South America. We used 34 terrestrial and marine predictor variables to predict shore‐connected canyon occurrence using Bayesian regression. Our analysis shows that steep and narrow shelves facilitate canyon‐head connectivity to the shore. Moreover, shore‐connected canyons occur preferentially along active margins characterized by resistant bedrock and high river‐water discharge.