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Original research — experimental, observational, or case-control study. Direct primary evidence.
Marine & Wildlife
Policy & Risk
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Human Population Density is a Poor Predictor of Debris in the Environment
Frontiers in Environmental Science2021
70 citations
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Citation count from OpenAlex, updated daily. May differ slightly from the publisher's own count.
Score: 55
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0–100 AI score estimating relevance to the microplastics field. Papers below 30 are filtered from public browse.
Qamar Schuyler,
Chris Wilcox
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Qamar Schuyler,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
Qamar Schuyler,
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
Qamar Schuyler,
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
Qamar Schuyler,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
T.J. Lawson,
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
Qamar Schuyler,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Britta Denise Hardesty,
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
T.J. Lawson,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Qamar Schuyler,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
Qamar Schuyler,
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
Chieh-Shen Hu,
Chieh-Shen Hu,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Qamar Schuyler,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Chieh-Shen Hu,
Chieh-Shen Hu,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Global Plastics Project Partners,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Global Plastics Project Partners,
R.R.M.K.P. Ranatunga,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Qamar Schuyler,
Qamar Schuyler,
Chris Wilcox
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
Chris Wilcox
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Britta Denise Hardesty,
Chris Wilcox
Summary
Researchers assessed factors driving plastic leakage to the environment using empirical data from seven countries and found that human population density alone is a poor predictor of debris levels. The study suggests that other factors, including waste management infrastructure and local land use, are more important drivers of environmental plastic pollution than population density estimates commonly used in global models.
Study Type
Environmental
There have been a variety of attempts to model and quantify the amount of land-based waste entering the world’s oceans, most of which rely heavily on global estimates of population density as the key driving factor. Using empirical data collected in seven different countries/territories (China, Kenya, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Vietnam), we assessed a variety of different factors that may drive plastic leakage to the environment. These factors included both globally available GIS data as well as observations made at a site level. While the driving factors that appear in the best models varied from country to country, it is clear from our analyses that population density is not the best predictor of plastic leakage to the environment. Factors such as land use, infrastructure and socio-economics, as well as local site-level variables (e.g., visible humans, vegetation height, site type) were more strongly correlated with plastic in the environment than was population density. This work highlights the importance of gathering empirical data and establishing regular monitoring programs not only to form accurate estimates of land-based waste entering the ocean, but also to be able to evaluate the effectiveness of land-based interventions.