The effect of periodic disturbances and carrying capacity on the significance of selection and drift in complex bacterial communities

Understanding how periodical disturbances affect the community assembly processes is vital for predicting temporal dynamics in microbial communities. However, the effect of dilutions as disturbances are poorly understood. We used a marine bacterial community to investigate the effect of disturbance (+/-) and carrying capacity (high/low) over 50 days in a dispersal-limited 2 × 2 factorial study in triplicates, with a crossover in the disturbance regime between microcosms halfway in the experiment. We modelled the rate of change in community composition between replicates and used this rate to quantify selection and ecological drift. The disturbed communities increased in Bray-Curtis similarity with 0.011 ± 0.0045 (Period 1) and 0.0092 ± 0.0080 day^-1 (Period 2), indicating that selection dominated community assembly. The undisturbed communities decreased in similarity at a rate of -0.015 ± 0.0038 day^-1 in Period 1 and were stable in Period 2 at 0.00050 ± 0.0040 day^-1, suggesting drift structured community assembly. Interestingly, carrying capacity had minor effects on community dynamics. This study is the first to show that stochastic effects are suppressed by periodical disturbances resulting in exponential growth periods due to density-independent biomass loss and resource input. The increased contribution of selection as a response to disturbances implies that ecosystem prediction is achievable.