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Policy impact on microplastic reduction in China: Observation and prediction using statistical model in an intensive mariculture bay
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Researchers applied decision tree classification and Bayesian Structural Time Series modelling to 26 surface sediment samples and a sediment core from Sansha Bay, China, finding that policy interventions may reduce microplastic abundance in this intensive mariculture area while also predicting near-future microplastic trends.
Plastic pollution in the environment has spurred debate among scientists, policymakers, and the general public over how industrialization and consumerism are wreaking havoc on our ecosystem, but some policies might assist to ameliorate the problem in the near future. In this study, the decision tree classifier and Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model was used to anticipate the possible sources of microplastics and their near future state in 26 surface sediment and a sediment core, respectively in Sansha Bay, which has been criticized for its intensive mariculture applications. An inventory of microplastics in the sediment core was estimated, and it was discovered that during the previous six decades, an average of 181.95 tons of microplastics were deposited, with an average deposition (by a layer of sediment) of 179.44 tons/cm. According to the DT classifier, mariculture was the primary source of microplastics, whereas urban and industrial areas were the primary sources of POPs. The Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model revealed a microplastic downward slope, indicating that regional and national strategies implemented might successfully reduce microplastic pollution regionally.
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Researchers investigated sedimentary microplastics in three representative coastal bays of the Zhejiang Great Bay Area, China, and used a mass budget model to quantify sources and fluxes within each bay system. Riverine discharge accounted for 41.5%-96.7% of total microplastic input, with textile and fishing sources dominant in Hangzhou Bay, mariculture and tourism driving levels in Sanmen Bay, and packaging and agricultural sources prominent in Wenzhou Bay.
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A four-site study of Dongshan Bay beach sediments in South China found microplastic concentrations ranging from 7.4 to 283.1 items/kg, with tidal dynamics strongly influencing distribution — higher loads near estuaries at high tide and coastal accumulation at low tide — and statistical analysis pointing to fishing and packaging industries as the dominant sources. Tidal forcing emerges as a key control on microplastic redistribution in coastal sediments, complicating source attribution and remediation planning for fishery-intensive coastlines.
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