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Refining the Aquatic Microplastic Risk Assessment Framework through Dynamic Flux Simulation and Ecological Thresholds
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Researchers developed a coupled hydrological-transport model and species-sensitivity-based risk framework for riverine microplastics, applying it to the Jinsha River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and finding that spatially adjusting ecological risk thresholds based on local species richness places 13–43% of the watershed at medium-to-high microplastic risk.
To address the limitations of existing models in simulating dynamics across arbitrary river cross-sections and the tendency of traditional assessments to neglect the spatial heterogeneity of receptor species, this study developed a microplastic flux simulation (MFS) model and a species sensitivity distribution-based ecological risk assessment (SSD-ERA) method. By coupling hydrological processes with microplastic emission and transport mechanisms, the MFS model enables dynamic simulation with strong predictive performance. Concurrently, the SSD-ERA method overcomes uniform-threshold limitations by dynamically adjusting risk thresholds based on local aquatic species richness. Application to the Jinsha River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau demonstrated strong agreement between simulated and observed values. Results indicated that surface-layer microplastic flux ranged from 0.66 to 276.82 tons/yr (95% CI: 0.54-334.58 tons/yr), placing 13.04-43.47% of the watershed at medium-to-high risk. This study highlights the critical role of spatial threshold adjustment, providing a refined methodological framework for future aquatic microplastic flux and risk modeling.
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