Aquaculture industry under the blue transformation in Jiangsu, China: Structure evolution and spatial agglomeration

Abstract This article focuses on studying the spatial distribution and evolution of the aquaculture industry in Jiangsu, a significant coastal province in China, within the context of the blue transformation. By collecting spatial data on the aquaculture industry and using ArcGIS software, this article analyses the characteristics of spatial changes and the driving forces behind them in Jiangsu’s aquaculture industry while providing predictions for future pattern evolution. The findings reveal that the overall distribution of the aquaculture industry in Jiangsu Province exhibits strong directionality but weak density, primarily oriented in the northwest–southeast direction. There is an evident trend of the industry shifting from the northern to the western regions and from the central to the northwest areas of the province. This indicates that initially, the aquaculture industry was primarily concentrated in the inland regions, while marine aquaculture gradually influenced the industry structure after 2010. Although the aquaculture industry shows signs of diversification, industry agglomeration is only observed in approximately 30.8% of the cities that exhibit a positive spatial correlation, which is a relatively small proportion compared to the total number of cities. However, despite the overall negative correlation in spatial distribution, the absolute difference between Moran’s I of all cities and zero is less than 0.4. This suggests that the spatial differences are not significant, regardless of the spatial autocorrelation characteristics of the overall distribution of a city. Based on the findings, this article recommends the urgent need for the development of policies that promote industry agglomeration in order to achieve effective regulation and pollution control in aquaculture.