Determination of microplastic contamination levels and trends in vast oceanic sediment areas with uncertainty

Small plastic particles, designated as microplastics, are known vehicles of several contaminants desorbed from their surface after being ingested by marine organisms. The monitoring of the levels and trends of microplastics in oceanic areas is essential to identify relevant threats and respective sources whose management should be improved to protect the environmental resources. However, the assessment of contamination trends in large oceanic areas is affected by contamination heterogeneity, sampling representativeness, and the uncertainty of collected sample analyses. Only contamination variations not justifiable by system heterogeneity and their characterisation uncertainty are meaningful and should be taken seriously by the authorities. This work describes a novel methodology for the objective identification of meaningful variation of microplastic contamination in vast oceanic areas by the Monte Carlo simulation of all uncertainty components. This tool was successfully applied to the monitoring of the levels and trends of microplastic contamination in sediments from a 700 km² oceanic area from 3 km to 20 km offshore Sesimbra and Sines (Portugal). This work allowed concluding that contamination has not varied between 2018 and 2019 (difference of mean total microplastic contamination between -40 kg^-1 and 34 kg^-1) but that microparticles made of PET are the major type of studied microplastics (in 2019, mean contamination is between 36 kg^-1 and 85 kg^-1). All assessments were performed for a 99 % confidence level.