Estimating the potential of climatic factors for global generation of microplastics from agricultural plastic films

Microplastics (MPs) released from agricultural plastic films (APFs) represent an emerging environmental hazard to soil health and food security. However, global-scale quantification of MPs generation from APFs remains scarce. This study combined national APFs usage data with the emission factors (EFs) model, and implemented Monte Carlo simulations to address uncertainties in annual MPs generation under varying wind speed (WS) and solar irradiance (SI). The results indicated that the theoretical global annual MPs generation from APFs was estimated at 6.15 × 10 tonnes, Asia being the leading continent. Among all the countries, China, India and Mexico constituted the top three contributors. Emission intensities of MPs in permanent cropland were markedly greater in Japan and South Korea than elsewhere. In most countries, more than 75 % of annual MPs generation occurred during the eight months with peak WS or SI. WS demonstrated a significant link to the mass generation of MPs (M), whereas SI promoted film aging, highlighting the stronger role of WS. This study provides a spatially explicit assessment of global MPs generation from APFs and reveals the intra-annual distribution pattern, facilitating the development of targeted strategies to control MPs pollution.