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A hybrid foresight study of the environmental reference laboratory system in Finland: a foresight study for the Government of Finland
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Researchers conducted a strategic foresight study for Finland's government, identifying key challenges environmental reference laboratories will face by 2030 — including the need to detect emerging contaminants like microplastics, nanomaterials, and pharmaceuticals in nature and food chains, alongside increased automation and citizen participation in environmental monitoring.
Abstract This article presents a hybrid foresight study using the Delphi methodology. The study is part of a strategic research project of the Finnish state named “Foresight in Environmental Reference Laboratory Operations.” The main starting point for this study was the Policy Delphi method, which was supplemented with other Delphi variants and decision support methods. In this hybrid foresight application, Delphi methodology was combined with decision-making and strategic planning tools, namely (1) SWOT analysis, (2) Boston Consulting Group Matrix, (3) research infrastructure (RI) analysis, (4) platform analysis, and (5) integrative foresight workshop. This article draws strongly on the hybrid foresight methodology perspective of foresight tool orchestration. The authors argue that the Delphi methodology gains reliability and appeal with hybrid methodological orchestration. The function of reference laboratories includes services for the verification and maintenance of the quality and validity of environmental measurements, such as the maintenance of reference measurement equipment, expertise, and training, and the organization of national reference measurements as well as participation in international reference measurements, method development, and standardization. The study shows the importance of environmental reference laboratories addressing the following challenges by 2030: (1) new measurement targets, such as the diffusion of nanomaterials, microplastics, and drugs in both nature and the food chain and the environmental impact of recycled materials and indoor air issues; (2) automation of measurement activities and transition to technologically advanced measurement systems; (3) citizens’ opportunities to participate in the production of information about their environment through new technologies; (4) preparing for the incorporation and internationalization of laboratory operations; and (5) the concentration of measurement service business.
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