Efficacy Simulations: A pattern of inadequate environmental action

This paper examines a behavioral pattern that is solution-oriented but creates an impact that is not adequately addressing the underlying problem. These efficacy simulations refer to behaviors, communication strategies, or messages that create a sense of efficacy without actually generating an impact that is proportional to the problem addressed. Together with other patterns like greenwashing, efficacy simulations contribute to the behavior-impact gap in the context of socio-ecological crises. We explore several types of efficacy simulations and their potential implications for individual and collective behavior change. Efficacy simulations may have valid uses, but come with specific risks and may hinder the societal transformations required to address complex socio-ecological challenges. We give recommendations for communications and especially point out the importance of providing reliable information on high-impact individual as well as collective behaviors and measures for sustainable change. By addressing efficacy simulations, policy-makers and agents of socio-ecological change can develop more effective communication strategies to foster meaningful behavior change and contribute to a sustainable future.