A Machine-Learning-Driven Pathophysiology-Based New Approach Method for the Dose-Dependent Assessment of Hazardous Chemical Mixtures and Experimental Validations

Environmental chemicals, such as PFAS, exist as mixtures and are frequently encountered at varying concentrations, which can lead to serious health effects, such as cancer. Therefore, understanding the dose-dependent toxicity of chemical mixtures is essential for health risk assessment. However, comprehensive methods to assess toxicity and identify the mechanisms of these harmful mixtures are currently absent. In this study, the dose-dependent toxicity assessments of chemical mixtures are performed in three methodologically distinct phases. In the first phase, we evaluated our machine-learning method (AI-HNN) and pathophysiology method (CPTM) for predicting toxicity. In the second phase, we integrated AI-HNN and CPTM to establish a comprehensive new approach method (NAM) framework called AI-CPTM that is targeted at refining prediction accuracy and providing a comprehensive understanding of toxicity mechanisms. The third phase involved experimental validations of the AI-CPTM predictions. Initially, we developed binary, multiclass classification, and regression models to predict binary, categorical toxicity, and toxic potencies using nearly a thousand experimental mixtures. This empirical dataset was expanded with assumption-based virtual mixtures, compensating for the lack of experimental data and broadening the scope of the dataset. For comparison, we also developed machine-learning models based on RF, Bagging, AdaBoost, SVR, GB, KR, DT, KN, and Consensus methods. The AI-HNN achieved overall accuracies of over 80%, with the AUC exceeding 90%. In the final phase, we demonstrated the superior performance and predictive capability of AI-CPTM, including for PFAS mixtures and their interaction effects, through rigorous literature and statistical validations, along with experimental dose-response zebrafish-embryo toxicity assays. Overall, the AI-CPTM approach significantly improves upon the limitations of standalone AI models, showing extensive enhancements in identifying toxic chemicals and mixtures and their mechanisms. This study is the first to develop a hybrid NAM that integrates AI with a pathophysiology method to comprehensively predict chemical-mixture toxicity, carcinogenicity, and mechanisms.