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Macro- and microplastic emissions and marine input flux in the Yangtze River Delta, China, from 1990 to 2020
Summary
Using historical emissions data and GIS mapping, researchers reconstructed how plastic pollution flowing from the Yangtze River Delta into the sea changed from 1990 to 2020, finding a dramatic rise driven by urbanization and industrial growth. Understanding these long-term emission trends is critical for designing effective policies to reduce plastic inputs to coastal marine ecosystems.
The Yangtze River Delta represents a critical hotspot region for plastic pollution generation, transport, and marine discharge flux within China's coastal waters. To assess the long-term evolution patterns of plastic marine input flux in this region, this study employed a bottom-up emission factor methodology integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis techniques. We developed high-resolution emission inventories for both macroplastics and microplastics, spanning 1990 to 2020, and coupled them with a comprehensive plastic land-to-sea migration probability model for the Yangtze River Delta region. The results demonstrate that the study area generated cumulative plastic emissions totaling 4.21 × 10 kg over the 30 years, exhibiting an average annual growth rate of 2.4 %. Macroplastics constituted 97.8 % of total emissions, while microplastics accounted for 2.2 % but demonstrated a substantially higher growth rate of 11.8 %. Plastic emissions exhibited pronounced inter-provincial disparities and urban agglomeration characteristics, with Jiangsu Province registering the highest total emissions (1.57 × 10 kg) and Zhejiang Province displaying the most rapid growth rate (2.9 %). The regional average probability of plastic marine input was determined to be 0.5 %, displaying a distinct "coastal high-inland low" gradient distribution pattern. The southeastern coastal areas of Zhejiang Province exhibited the highest marine input probability at 1.2 %. Over the 1990-2020 period, cumulative plastic marine input flux reached 2.13 × 10 kg, with Zhejiang Province contributing the largest proportion (46.9 %). The marine input flux demonstrated an average annual growth rate of 2.5 %. These results provide a scientific basis for targeted plastic pollution control and marine environmental management in the Yangtze River Delta.
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