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Communicating scientific uncertainties: Effects of message and audience characteristics in the context of microplastic health risks
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Researchers conducted an experiment with over 1,100 participants in Austria to study how communicating scientific uncertainty about microplastic health risks affects public perception. They found that emphasizing a lack of scientific consensus led to lower risk perception and indirectly reduced support for related policies. Framing uncertainty as remaining knowledge gaps rather than disagreement among scientists produced less negative effects on public engagement.
Communicating uncertainties is central to science communication, yet evidence on its effects is inconclusive. In an online experiment with a quasi-representative sample in Austria (N = 1126), we investigated the effects of message (uncertainty type) and audience characteristics (science-specific attitudes/beliefs) as potential moderating factors on risk perception and policy support in the context of microplastic health effects. Uncertainty communication, specifically communicated lack of scientific consensus (consensus uncertainty), triggered lower risk perception (small effect), and indirectly decreased policy support through message credibility and risk perception. These negative effects were lower (and not statistically significant) when communicating the remaining knowledge gaps (deficient uncertainty). Beliefs about science as a debate were positively associated with risk perception, trust in scientists with policy support and preference for information about uncertain science with both. However, these audience characteristics did not moderate the effects of uncertainty communication. The results highlight the importance of considering uncertainty types in environmental and health risk communication.
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