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From total volume control to governance logic: a legal review and institutional solution for the production cap rules in global plastics agreements
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Countries negotiating a global plastics treaty are stuck arguing over whether to cap how much new plastic gets made, since plastic production is a major source of the microplastics and chemicals linked to health problems. This legal analysis suggests a strict global cap won't work politically, and instead proposes sorting plastics by risk level and assigning different rules to different countries, a compromise that could actually get adopted and start reducing plastic pollution sooner.
The issue of global plastic pollution has become a pressing environmental concern that requires a unified response from the international community. Ongoing negotiations for the “Global Plastics Convention” are positioning upstream production controls as the primary strategy for combating plastic pollution. Among these provisions, the debate over whether to impose an upper limit on the total volume of virgin plastic production stands out as the most contentious. This study employed normative analysis, textual analysis, and comparative legal methods, using various draft negotiation texts from the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee as the basis for analysis. It also draws upon the rules of treaty interpretation under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), along with fundamental principles of international environmental law, such as the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and the principle of state sovereignty. The evolution of negotiations concerning the upstream control clauses of the Global Plastics Convention was traced systematically through the multi-layered approach. The findings reveal that the disputes surrounding upstream controls are not merely a result of political bargaining; rather, they arise from the interaction of various normative conflicts. These conflicts primarily reflect deep-rooted tensions between interpretations of treaty authorization and the principles governing responsibility allocation. Building on this analysis, the study further explored how barriers—including reliance on end-of-pipe solutions, jurisdictional fragmentation, and insufficient institutional provisions—have triggered and intensified these legal conflicts. This study argues that relying solely on rigid “total volume control” clauses is insufficient for reconciling the differing interests of stakeholders. Instead, a shift is necessary towards a reconfigured governance logic that emphasizes risk classification, tiered responsibility allocation, and the effective integration of soft and stringent governance measures. Based on this framework, the study proposes an alternative upstream governance mechanism that includes hierarchical classification-based controls, a two-tier collaborative governance model, a differentiated CBDR(Common but Differentiated Responsibilities) mechanism, and an accompanying supporting safeguard system. The contributions of this study are twofold: theoretically, it clarifies the legal conflicts underlying the debates over production limits and advances the academic discourse on the transition from rigid law to soft law within international environmental law; practically, it offers a compromise solution aimed at enhancing the institutional design of upstream control provisions within the Global Plastics Convention, thereby balancing juridical legitimacy with operational feasibility.
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