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Ecological Modelling of Dietary Microplastic Exposure and Geographic-Patterns of Pancreatic Cancer Mortality in Italy

Preprints.org 2026
Masoumeh Khamehchi, Umberto Cornelli, Rafael Luque, Claudio Casella

Summary

Researchers found that pancreatic cancer death rates are higher in Northern Italy than Southern Italy, and one possible reason is greater exposure to microplastics from packaged foods and industrial pollution in the north, while eating more fiber seemed to lower cancer risk. This study can't prove microplastics directly cause pancreatic cancer, but it suggests that cutting back on packaged foods and eating more fiber might be smart moves while scientists continue investigating how tiny plastic particles could affect our organs.

Polymers
Body Systems
Models

Pancreatic cancer (PC) mortality in Italy exhibits a persistent North–South macro-geographic gradient between 2003 and 2022, with significantly higher rates in northern regions. Whilst traditional risk factors partially explain this trend, the contribution of emerging dietary xenobiotics remains unexplored. This study presents an integrated ecological and ecotoxicological modelling framework combining long-term mortality rates, household dietary intake from ISTAT registries, and micro- and nanoplastic (MNP) exposure derived from the FOMIC-Py pyramid. Using robust linear models with 5,000-iteration bootstrap validation, we identified dietary fibre as a robust, independent protective factor against PC mortality. Conversely, higher regional reliance on packaged foods coupled with industrial airborne plastic deposition yields a 58.4% higher estimated annual MNP exposure in Northern Italy compared to Southern cohorts. Mechanistically, ingested plastics crossing the intestinal barrier can bioaccumulate in pancreatic tissue, inducing chronic oxidative stress, inflammation, and cellular dysfunction. Although ecological limitations preclude direct causality, this predictive exposure model establishes dietary plastics as plausible environmental cofactors modulating PC geographic disparities. These key findings highlight the dual importance of promoting high-fibre diets and mitigating single-use plastic exposure within food supply chains to address these emerging environmental cancer risks across European population cohort studies.

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