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Numerical Simulation of River-Borne Debris Trajectories and Dispersion Patterns in Lamong Bay, Indonesia
Summary
Scientists used computer modeling to track how plastic waste moves through Lamong Bay in Indonesia, finding that ocean currents and seasonal wind patterns push floating plastic debris toward river mouths and different parts of the bay depending on the time of year. This matters because that plastic breaks down into microplastics that can enter the food chain through fish and shellfish harvested from these waters, and this kind of pollution-tracking research helps identify where cleanup efforts would have the biggest impact.
Abstract Lamong Bay is a region utilized for a variety of activities, including industry, trade, and warehousing. These extensive activities have caused its waters to become heavily polluted with waste. The presence of marine debris is a growing environmental concern, as it can have adverse effects on humans and the aquatic environment, particularly on the habitats and biota within Lamong Bay’s waters. To address this, this study aims to predict the distribution and movement of marine debris, directly supporting the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 14 (Life Below Water) by providing critical data for mitigating marine pollution. The method used for the hydrodynamic and particle tracking modeling is a numerical approach utilizing the Delft3D software. Model validation was performed to measure data accuracy against observational data, using statistical calculations of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Pearson Correlation to find the linear relationship between model outputs and measurements. The study’s results indicate that the movement and distribution of Polypropylene (PP) plastic debris are strongly linked to current and tidal patterns. PP debris tends to concentrate near river mouths and within Lamong Bay during both spring and neap tides. During the west monsoon, debris is concentrated on the southeastern side of the bay, while the east monsoon shifts concentration to the northwestern side. The concentration of floating PP debris is higher in the west monsoon (peaking at approximately 0.04 kg/m 2 ) than in the east monsoon (peaking at approximately 0.02 kg/m 2 ).