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From Watershed Evidence to Public Decision: A Framework for Communicating Hydrologic Uncertainty
Summary
This paper (a synthesis of existing research rather than new experiments) proposes a framework to help scientists communicate more honestly about uncertainty when studying local water sources, like rivers and streams—including contamination from bacteria and microplastics. Instead of sounding either falsely certain or so hedgy that no one acts, the framework helps researchers match how confidently they state a claim to how strong the actual evidence is, so communities and officials can make better-informed decisions about water safety.
Background: Hydrologic uncertainty is unavoidable in watershed management, yet it is often poorly communicated to stakeholders and decision-makers. Overstating certainty causes poor decisions and credibility loss; understating evidence delays necessary action. The challenge is not to eliminate uncertainty but to communicate it in ways that preserve scientific integrity and support responsible public action. Materials and Methods: This concise framework paper integrates and updates contemporary peer-reviewed literature on uncertainty taxonomy and translational discourse for risk communication, drought hydrologic connectivity, high-frequency low-flow monitoring, hydroclimatic non-stationarity, the natural flow regime, monitoring decision workflows, sensor-grab calibration, and urban stream syndrome, with work on future water balance, fecal indicators, and microplastic science. Results: A Hydrologic Uncertainty Communication Framework is proposed as five components (Evidence Type, Process Inference, Uncertainty Source, Decision Relevance, Ethical Claim Boundary) arranged as a five-pillar capstone layout supporting a Defensible Claim Boundary, coupled with a five-by-five matrix that aligns each component against five uncertainty types (measurement, sampling, model, process, decision). Conclusions: The framework is a science communication and decision-support instrument; it supports the explicit translation of watershed evidence into public decision-making language by aligning the strength of each claim with the strength and scope of the supporting evidence.