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Analysis of vehicle-related non-exhaust PM10 and emerging pollutants in Beijing with machine-learning
Summary
Electric cars don't have tailpipe exhaust, but researchers found that as more EVs hit the road in Beijing, pollution from tire and brake wear—including heavy metals and microplastics—is making up a bigger share of harmful particle pollution. This matters because switching to electric vehicles reduces one type of air pollution but doesn't eliminate it, and features like regenerative braking help cut down heavy metals but do little to reduce microplastic pollution, which can affect air and water quality and potentially human health.
With the growth of electric vehicles, non-exhaust PM 10 is becoming the dominant contributor to vehicle-related particulate pollution and a source of emerging pollutants. This study evaluated four machine-learning algorithms and selected Random Forest (RF) to estimate road traffic flow. By coupling RF with the MOVES model, we developed an RF-MOVES model to quantify the emissions of non-exhaust PM 10 , heavy metals, and microplastics, and assessed the characteristics of the emissions under three electrification scenarios. Research shows that temporal variations in tire-road wear PM 10 (TRWPM 10 ) and tire brake PM 10 (TBPM 10 ) are attributed to travel behavior and road conditions, while spatial heterogeneity reflects road-network structure and vehicle-type distribution. Vehicle electrification increased the proportions of TRWPM 10 and TBPM 10 to total vehicle-related PM 10 due to reduced exhaust PM 10 . The fractions of heavy metals and microplastics in non-exhaust PM 10 increased by over 4% and 9%, respectively, indicating a growing potential for environmental contamination. Furthermore, increasing regenerative braking reduces non-exhaust PM 10 and heavy metal emissions, while its effects on microplastic mitigation remain limited. This study provides a model for calculating high-resolution non-exhaust PM 10 . Our results highlight the potential environmental contamination risks of vehicle-related non-exhaust PM 10 and offer insights for managing non-exhaust PM 10 , heavy metals and microplastics in future electrification scenarios.