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Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?
Summary
This paper examines why birth rates have fallen to historically low levels across all high-income countries, documenting rising childlessness and declining completed family sizes. The authors argue that short-term economic explanations are insufficient, and instead point to a broad cultural shift where parenthood plays a smaller role in adult priorities. While not directly about microplastics, recent research has linked microplastic and nanoplastic exposure to reproductive harm in both males and females, suggesting environmental pollutants could be one factor among many contributing to declining fertility.
This paper considers why fertility has fallen to historically low levels in virtually all high-income countries.Using cohort data, we document rising childlessness at all observed ages and falling completed fertility.This cohort perspective underscores the need to explain long-run shifts in fertility behavior.We review existing research and conclude that period-based explanations focused on short-term changes in income or prices cannot explain the widespread decline.Instead, the evidence points to a broad reordering of adult priorities with parenthood occupying a diminished role.We refer to this phenomenon as "shifting priorities" and propose that it likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms, evolving economic opportunities and constraints, and broader social and cultural forces.We review emerging evidence on all these factors.We conclude the paper with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications.
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