Pathways to zero plastic waste landfill: Progress toward plastic circularity in South Africa

Abstract The accumulation of waste in landfill is currently a challenge globally and in South Africa. The primary motivation of this research was to contribute to identifying and evaluating pathways for diverting plastic waste from landfill and advancing the plastics circular economy. This study assessed, for South Africa, key measures implemented by selected countries to promote recycling in order to divert waste from the landfill. The National Waste Management Strategy of 2020 for South Africa mandates successive waste reduction targets toward zero waste landfill by 2050. Material flow analysis (MFA) was extended from previous studies and used to map plastic flows over three successive intervals to assess progress made toward diversion of plastic waste from landfill. The percentage of plastic materials sent to landfill for South Africa were 74%, 78%, and 39% in 2017, 2019, and 2021, respectively. Potential pathways were identified as strategies for the South African to accelerate the reduction of plastic waste to landfill. These were modeled as single and as combined actions, through sensitivity analysis on the MFA‐derived Sankey diagram and used to assess their impact on waste to landfill reduction. The scenario analysis highlighted improved waste collection and waste sorting as key measures and enablers that should be developed and a priority for reduction of plastic waste to landfill before the 2050 target year. The paper presents a new generic approach that combines MFA, Sankey diagrams, and scenario analysis to explore and evaluate solution spaces for transition to a circular economy.