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Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040
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This OECD report models the environmental and economic consequences of different international policy scenarios aimed at ending plastic pollution by 2040, finding that current policies are insufficient to alter plastic flow trends. More ambitious circular economy policies could dramatically reduce plastic leakage to the environment, though economic trade-offs vary by approach.
Plastics provide multiple benefits to society, but their lifecycle − from feedstock extraction and polymer production to use and disposal − contributes to pollution, climate change and biodiversity loss. Current policies are inadequate to meaningfully alter trends in plastic flows and related pollution. This report provides insights into the potential environmental benefits and economic consequences of different levels of international policy ambition towards ending plastic pollution by 2040. Based on the quantification of the main drivers of plastics production and use, waste and pollution, the report provides projections of the plastics lifecycle, waste generation and treatment, as well as related leakage to the environment. The report presents and contrasts a range of policy scenarios with varying levels of ambition in terms of the stringency, lifecycle scope and geographical coverage of policies implemented. Its findings can inform a critical stage of international negotiations to develop a legally binding agreement to end plastic pollution.
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Evaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution
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Researchers modeled five different intervention scenarios for reducing global plastic pollution between 2016 and 2040 and found that even implementing all feasible solutions would only cut pollution rates by 40% compared to 2016 levels. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 710 million metric tons of plastic waste would still accumulate in ecosystems even with immediate action. The study makes clear that coordinated global efforts across consumption reduction, recycling, waste collection, and innovation are urgently needed.
Global environmental plastics dispersal under OECD policy scenarios towards 2060
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Researchers modeled how global plastic pollution would spread through the environment under different policy scenarios developed by the OECD, looking ahead to 2060. They found that even with ambitious policy action, significant amounts of plastic will continue leaking into aquatic environments unless waste management improves dramatically worldwide. The study suggests that coordinated global policies targeting both plastic production and waste management are essential to curb environmental plastic pollution.
Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution
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This study assessed the impact of waste reduction, waste management, and environmental recovery strategies on global plastic emissions for 173 countries, estimating that 19–23 million metric tons entered aquatic ecosystems in 2016. Even with current governmental commitments, annual emissions could reach 53 million metric tons by 2030, indicating that extraordinary transformation of the global plastics economy is needed.
Transforming the Global Plastics Economy: The Role of Economic Policies in the Global Governance of Plastic Pollution
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This paper argues that addressing plastic pollution requires looking beyond waste management and marine cleanup to tackle the problem at its source, across the entire plastics life cycle including production, trade, and consumption. The authors trace how international policy discussions have evolved from voluntary approaches to regulatory frameworks, with over 100 governments calling for a new global plastics agreement. The research highlights the need for economic policies that address upstream production alongside downstream pollution.
100 years of plastic -- using the past to guide the future
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Researchers conducted a global material flow analysis of plastic production and waste from 1950 to 2020, finding that plastic waste generation has consistently outpaced waste management capacity and currently produces approximately 60 million tonnes of mismanaged waste annually, with projections suggesting this could double by 2050 without robust policy interventions.
Research digests by email
When a large batch of papers lands in the Atlas, we read through it and send a short write-up of what stood out.